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...I love the population-based analysis. Very nice.<br /><br />That said, I contest the estimates of 10% and 32 cmpds per year. Suspect both are actually higher, maybe by 2x...so, would you be comfortable with 600 million?<br /><br />(Either way, still below 1B)See Arr Ohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09464185815368499346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6010505890506526002.post-4347671210172671642016-05-06T11:49:14.799-04:002016-05-06T11:49:14.799-04:00I'm going to take the Fermi approach here, and...I'm going to take the Fermi approach here, and summarily ignore all your rules (sorry).<br /><br />Start with the assumption that the number of chemists in the world has approximately tracked with the total world population for the past 250 years.<br /><br />Currently, there are ~50,000 chemists in the US. Let's assume 10% are actively making new chemical matter. That means 0.0000167% of the population is making new chemicals. If we extrapolate this backwards, we can assume that the same portion of the population was making new chemicals for the last 250 years (not a great assumption, but probably not off by THAT much).<br /><br />If we break the last 250 years into half centuries, and "integrate" over each of those 50-year blocks, we can get a decent idea of how many total people have been making new molecules over the past quarter millennium.<br /><br />Lastly, I picked an arbitrary number of new molecules a chemist might make in a given year. More than 10, probably less than 100. So let's take the geometric mean, 32.<br /><br />Running all the numbers gives you 333 million molecules.MAhttps://unemployedchemist.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6010505890506526002.post-75019043702861705702016-05-06T07:44:15.615-04:002016-05-06T07:44:15.615-04:00All completely fair questions. In order:
Yes, I...All completely fair questions. In order:<br />Yes, I'd count the salt.<br />Yes, we'll count fluxional centers, for instance in sugars.<br />Agreed that DBs are inherently unreliable for stereo and mixtures.<br />Isomers would be in.<br /><br />I guess I mean "chemical substance." Obviously, every time I make a mmol, it's billions of "molecules," huh?<br /><br />Thanks for the questions.See Arr Ohhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09464185815368499346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6010505890506526002.post-29610712805792575832016-05-06T07:24:10.997-04:002016-05-06T07:24:10.997-04:00It's always an interesting question to conside...It's always an interesting question to consider chemical space, and I also find it interesting to think about what counts as a 'real' chemical. You always need to define your question somehow, which immediately raises new problems.<br /><br />Fair enough to leave out natural products (if I understand right, you want a measure of synthetic effort). If the alkaloid you aren't counting comes off the column as a white crystalline HCl salt, will you count that?<br /><br />If you have a solution of a sugar derivative and on crystallisation you get one set of crystals of alpha molecules and another set of beta ones, are you counting it twice?<br /><br />The second question is why you should be careful about using chemical databases. How many glucoses are in ChemSpider? As well as 'alpha' and 'beta' there is also 'undefined', as well as the open chain ones etc. CAS has a similar problem for some substances, e.g. one record for a racemic mix and one for each of the enantiomers, even though in solution the molecules rapidly interconvert. Each has a different structure and a different name, but are they actually different compounds?<br /><br />What about isomeric substitution?<br /><br />"How many unique molecules have ever been made?" Do you mean 'molecule', or do you mean 'compound' or 'chemical substance'?<br /><br />Interesting question, which I can't help you answer so I'm quibbling instead!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com